EFFECT OF BREXIT ON IMMIGRATION TO UK FROM PUNJAB

In an unbelievable yet irreversible episode on June 23 this year, the Britons voted in favour of Brexit. This has unbridled uncertainties on the fate of free movement of people and free trade as well. The UK will be now preoccupied with long series of negotiations not only with other EU members but also with the non-EU members and its own constituencies, like Scotland and North Ireland who had vehemently battled for Bremain. While the future stands on unpredictable junctures, what is certain is that there were three factors on which the Brexit campaign succeeded, i.e., immigration, 350 million pound weekly fee to the EU club and Brussels’ opaque and unaccountable technocracy. While EU had being more abiding than its 28 members in the arenas of free movement of people to the enactment of laws to the terms of trade, but for the Brexitters the idea of Union had become incompatible with sovereignty. The world’s biggest economic zone is not, strangely, the world’s most influential political zone.

Thus, the Britons have proclaimed that the free movement of people was not acceptable to the Great Britain anymore. They want to control and restrict the flow of migrants, be it the EU nationals or the non-EU ones. The supporters of Brexit have assured that with the success of the Brexit campaign, migration will now be brought to the door steps of the United Kingdom. It will shift from Calais in France to Dover in the United Kingdom. Hence, there is no escape from the inevitable key changes impending to the UK’s immigration policies with stricter qualifications and limited quotes for immigrants from EU or any other part of the world.

In search of greener pastures and to escape unemployment many Indians, especially from Punjab, reach the doors of foreign countries both legally and illegally. Many EU member nations especially Britain, and now exceedingly Italy and Spain are among the key destinations. The 2011 Census in UK has revealed that people of Indian origin constitute of 2.73% of the total population; estimated at nearly 1.5 and 2 million. Of these two-thirds are Punjabis. These trends of migration can be witnessed in the present time as well.

Over the past few years, there has been a rise in the resentment against immigrants in the EU due to cultural and economic reasons. Since 2010, in order to control the influx of the immigrants into the UK, David Cameron’s government has changed many immigration rules for non-European countries, making it harder to enter or remain in the UK. Major policy changes have affected the immigration and emigration of non-EU nationals including, students, workers, family/dependents and asylum seekers. In the wake of the Brexit, these rules bound to witness more changes.

On the one hand, it is possible that the UK’s membership of the EU would be replaced by an association agreement of some kind that included free movement. Norway and Switzerland, for example, have both implemented free movement as part of their economic cooperation agreements with the EU. If this happened in the UK, the impacts of Brexit on UK migration could be relatively limited.

On the other hand, EU withdrawal could mean the end of free movement and the introduction of admission requirements for EU citizens who want to live and work in the UK. These could take various forms, but the most obvious scenario is that EU citizens would face the same rules as non-EU citizens.

This could affect heavily on the prospects of those who wish to enter the UK through other EU members. It is seen that the European Charter of Human Rights and other European humanitarian instruments have often come to the rescue of those who have been wronged by draconian immigration rules of the UK, for, e.g., the Article 8 of the rights regarding Right to Family is often invoked in cases of Entry Clearance for Family Member visa applications. In withdrawal of UK’s EU membership will reduced the number of remedies available on humanitarian grounds.

The Leave campaign had said that it wanted control over who comes — a flexible migration policy that does not necessarily crack down on EU migrants but treats EU and non-EU migrants equally.

Pro-Brexit politicians have often talked of introducing an “Australian-style points system” to bring in the brightest and most talented migrants. But it is unclear how that might apply to those hoping to work in Britain as fruit pickers or hotel receptionists — the very people employers say are essential.

The idea of a points based system is that certain skills and qualifications are worth more than others to an economy. The more in demand the skill is, the more points a prospective immigrant will get. Those who reach a threshold would be eligible for a visa.

This allows countries to tailor immigration to their needs. For example, Australia is currently accepting more skilled chefs, mechanics, architects and nurses, because it doesn't have enough of them.

Nevertheless, as a result of forsake of EU membership, the automatic right of all EU citizens to come to live and work in the UK will end, as will EU control over vital aspects of our social security system. Meanwhile, there would be no change for EU citizens already lawfully resident in the country, either. These EU citizens will automatically be granted indefinite leave to remain in the UK and will be treated no less favourably than they are at present. Immigrants from Punjab who are allowed in the UK under provisions of EU free movement policies will face such scenarios.

However, going by Brexit campaign rhetoric, a UK-EU divorce could actually boost Indian migration to Britain. Since it joined the EU, Britain has deliberately given preference to European Union migrants and shut down migration paths for Commonwealth and other non-EU countries.

Britain saw about 70,000 migrants a year from the Commonwealth through the 1970s, mostly from India. Restrictions imposed afterwards saw, by the early 1980s, Indian migration fall to 18,000 a year. By the 1990s, less than 5,000 a year were becoming British citizens. The hunt for tech workers and highly skilled migrants in the 2000s pushed the figure up again but the numbers kept below 20,000 a year.

Obligated by treaty, the UK left its borders open to other EU citizens. Since the original EU member-states were of comparable economic wealth, this did not mean much. When the EU included the poorer countries of Eastern and southeastern Europe, this changed. Between 2004 and 2009, some 1.5 million EU citizens migrated to the UK.

This could lead to easing out of work restrictions and provide more level playing field for Indians and European nationals. Indians immigrants are reportedly more qualified in terms of skill and education, speak English and bring their own capital to the UK. Thus, their position is better as compared to that of the East European nationals. Experts have opined that in case there are certain restrictions that are put, Indians probably have a better chance of getting jobs, especially at a lower level such as for cleaners.

Currently, the weakening pound has brought the cost of study and travel to the UK down to advantageous levels.  Indians needed around 98 rupees to buy one British pound on January 1, but now need only around 91 rupees (as on June 27)–a 7% decline in the value of the pound this year alone. Analysts expect the pound to lose more value in coming days. This can be viewed as a silver lining of the referendum and many immigrants can benefit from this. But this is until the fees for the same are revised.

The UK is yet to invoke Article 50 of Lisbon treaty to initiate the withdrawal proceedings from the European Union. As per the treaty, a maximum of two years are to be utilised to settle down all negotiations related to the exit. Hence, there is nearly a two year time before actually results of the referendum come out. It is only after the UK’s official exit from EU that it can launch any new immigration policies both in regard with EU nationals and non-EU nationals. For Punjabi immigrants eyeing to enter Europe through the UK and vice versa, things are definitely not going to be the same. The departure of the EU authorities though could ease out many restrictions yet the anti-immigration wave could close many the doors to the UK through the UK’s immigration policies. Immigration from Punjab will greatly decline.